Interpretation of Price Increases and Production Arrangements for PV Modules

Event 1: According to media reports, some manufacturers and dealers informed that the price of downstream photovoltaic modules will increase by about 0.003USD/W, and some module types are in short supply.

It is understood that the current price increase is tentative, and whether the price increase can be successful needs to be confirmed by the downstream. Module production is currently scheduled and demand is improving, so it is believed that it is only a matter of time before module prices rise. The reason is that European inventories continue to be depleted and non-European and American overseas installed capacity continues to be strong. The production schedule of modules and auxiliary materials improved significantly in March. The module production schedule in March is expected to be around 45-50GW; in terms of solar raw materials, there is strong demand for orders for adhesive films, and production is expected to be close to full production in March. Glass inventories remained at about 2 weeks in February; companies such as soldering ribbons and junction boxes also expressed optimism about demand in March, which increased significantly compared with February.

Event 2: The film leader has made it clear that it will increase prices this week and next week, with the increase being within 10%.

The price increase is mainly due to the fact that on the demand side, module production schedules increased by more than 50% month-on-month in March. In addition, in terms of cost, prices of particles have rebounded from 30 to 70 USD after the holiday, among which photovoltaic grade particles have rebounded by 140 USD/ton from the previous low.

Event 3: In the past two days, the market has paid more attention to photovoltaic production scheduling. The increase is mainly due to the substantial increase in European module orders since February and more centralized projects.

Recently, the market has been paying more attention to the module production schedule in March. This data will be relatively clear at the end of the month. The base number in February was low due to the holiday, and the production schedule in March recovered relatively quickly. Compared with the specific production scheduling data, it should be noted that the market has gradually changed from ignoring changes in the photovoltaic industry to paying attention to changes.

The current market demand for N-type modules is growing rapidly, and it is expected that the N-type module production schedule in March may reach 30 GW. In terms of supply, TopCon's effective cell output is expected to reach full production level in the second quarter. The monthly output in February and March was approximately 35 to 36 GW, and the average mass production efficiency exceeded 24.7%, which can meet current demand.

But the market is worried about whether there is enough supply of N-type cells, especially in early March. As some battery factories are in the stage of resuming work and production and adjusting production efficiency, short-term supply may exceed demand, pushing prices up slightly. In the long term, it is not believed that there will be a market shortage for TopCon and N-type cells.

In March, overall, the production scheduling ratio of N-type products is expected to reach more than 65%. If we exclude the leading company with the highest proportion of N-type products, the N-type product scheduling ratio of other companies is between 60% and 65%.

In short, some module manufacturers have good order conditions and are promoting module price increases to downstream companies; the supply of N-type cells has been slightly tight recently and may follow price increases; silicon materials and silicon wafers are more difficult to increase prices.