This week ,M6 monocrystalline silicon wafer (166mm/170μm) price range in $0.83 - $0.85 / piece, the average transaction price fell to $0.84 / piece, weekly decline 4.94%; M10 monocrystalline silicon wafer (182mm/175μm) price range in the $0.97 - $1.01 / piece, the average transaction price decreased to $0.99 / piece, week on month decline 5.64%; G12 monocrystal silicon wafer (210 mm/170μm) price range in $1.36 - $1.41 / piece, the average transaction price remained at $1.4 / piece, week on month held steady.
The main reason for the sharp drop in silicon wafer prices this week is that the original M10 inventory superimposed on M10 broke out in a concentrated manner this week, which caused a certain degree of market panic and led to a sharp drop in M6 prices. G12 compared with the mainstream size silicon volume is not large, the price is stable. From the Angle of inventory, market forecast, about more than 100 million 182 mm size silicon (about 1 GW) inventory digestion, mainly for the enterprise inventory turnover and a normal silicon companies stockpiling supplies, stock up reason is expected Q4 installed optimistic, so the enterprise after the furnace type conversion will produce silicon rod into inventory, and concentrated slice in the near future. From the supply point of view, this week to participate in the investigation of the domestic ten monocrystalline silicon chip enterprises operating rate appeared differences. The utilization rate of the two first-tier companies was maintained at 45 percent and 60 percent respectively, while that of the integrated enterprises was reduced to 80-90 percent. The operating rate of other company fell to between 50% and 80%. From the perspective of demand, the operating rate of solar panel factory is still 60% as of this week, indicating that battery factory did not respond to the sudden price reduction in time, and the break-even of the whole year makes battery factory unwilling to give profits. According to the situation at both ends of supply and demand, this week's silicon wafer manufacturers shipped very little in the context of low profits and inactive solar panel procurement, which also explains the recent appearance of a price for silicon cell a day.
From the point of view of cost, the cost of M10 is about $0.91 to $0.95 per piece (excluding logistics costs and other costs), and the price difference in the middle comes from the cost and scale advantages of first-tier enterprises. And this week M10 transaction price at $1 / piece, the net profit margin is only between 5%-8%, this profit level makes the third party silicon chip enterprises difficult to continue, integrated enterprises to protect the profit of the component end slightly optimistic.
Terminal demand has been weak recently, mainly because of high solar module prices and delayed orders already signed. But this week after the price of silicon cells fell, the component side of the operation rate did not fall but rose, proving that terminal demand is still strong, first-line enterprises and integrated enterprises will not choose to wait and see. Therefore, it is expected that the group price end will simultaneously transmit the logic of price drop and volume rise, and after the end demand picks up, the price of silicon cell will stop falling and stabilize.
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